Sunday, June 17, 2007

Dollar Decline ? McKinsey MGI report

In the current scenario, I am always dollar bearish. I strongly belive in fundamental strength of EURO. Even I would be slightly bullish on GBP and CHF against USD. Only one big currency in which I don't have much faith is JPY, even though they come with strong GDP growth rates and raise interest rates, still for some time I would bet on USD against JPY. However, for a long term > 3 years horizon, I would always bet on a short USD strategy. So my personal views are

Till December 2007 end
Pair : Strategy : Target
EURUSD : Long : target 1.3900
GBPUSD : Long : target 2.0150
USDCHF : Short: target 1.2200
USDJPY : Long : target 125.00

3 year targets i.e. December 2009 end
Pair : Strategy : Target

EURUSD : Long : target 1.6000
GBPUSD : Long : target 2.2000
USDCHF : Short: target 1.1500
USDJPY : Short : target 105.00


Coming back to my original point, McKinsey - MGI has released a report which says US dollar would need to depreciate 33% from its level in January 2007 to eliminate the US current account deficit by 2012.
Read the report here and article here

Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home